Tracker

Iranian Presidential Election Polling Data

June 12, 2009
At a Khatami rally this spring, Persian singer Hesameddin Seraj speaks up (Photo by eshare, available at Flickr)

 

The Islamic Republic of Iran will hold its 10th presidential election on June 12, 2009. On May 21, the Guardian Council will select the candidates allowed to run for office, leaving three weeks for candidates to campaign.

The IranTracker team has collected all available polling information on the Iranian election. Much of it is unscientific, biased, and inaccurate; however, the numbers do reveal snapshots, trends, and potential outcomes.

Please see Ali Alfoneh's Middle East Outlook examining how the real winner of the election will be Khamenei.

A roundup of election-related news, candidate bios, and news specific to each campaign can be found here.

Please contact the IranTracker team with any questions or comments on this polling information.

 

Polling Data

 Poll Type 
 Date 
 Khatami*
 Qalibaf*
IranTracker Poll Average (Unscientific)   40.6 35.1 7.2 5.0 36.1 9.6
Aftab News June 11 34.6 50.3 8.2 6.9 - -
Fars News June 10 52.8 25.5 3.2 6.3 - -
Fars News June 10 54 43 - - - -
Fars News June 10 54 33 6.1 3.2 - -
Alef News June 6 63 - - - - -
Fars News June 2 53 36 3 2 - -
Ayandeh News Week of May 25 34 38 - - - -
Terror Free Tomorrow / New America Foundation May 11-20 34 14 2 1 - -
IRIB (Tehran only) Week of May 18 44 47 - - - -
Alef News May 17-18 54.5 22 3.2 2 - -
Entekhab News May 17-18 23.9 27.8 22.8 25.5 - -
Teribon Isfahan University Poll (Non-internet student poll)
May 14
21.2
58.49
9.35
1.02
 -
 -
Webgozar Internet Poll
May 14
19.8
69.7
3.8
2.6
 -
Teribon.com Internet Poll
May 12
42
16.2
19.7
3.2
IRNA Student Poll
May 4
51.3
26.4
17.5
8.4
 -
 -
Sada va Sima (IRIB)
May 3-4
58.2
21.9
3.6
1.4
 -
Labor Union Association
April 10
36
52
8
 -
 -
 -
University Polling Association
April 9-10
46.9
15.7
1.4
0.9
-
12.9
Tabnak Internet Poll
March 17
15.1
23.8
2.6
-
51.7
-
University Polling Association
February - March
44.5
8.2
1
 -
20.5
6.3
Tehran University Faculty and Students
February 26
17.6
72.1
6.9
 -
 -
 *Khatami and Qalibaf are shown for comparison purposes only, as they are not seeking the presidency this election.

 

DETAILED POLLING INFORMATION

 

Fars News Agency

June 10

http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8803201253

Participants: All provinces, two cities and two villages in each province

  • Ahmadinejad: 52.8%
  • Mousavi: 25.5%
  • Rezai: 6.3%
  • Karrubi: 3.2%

 

Fars News Agency

June 10

http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8803201253

Participants: Employees of ministries

  • Ahmadinejad: 54%
  • Mousavi: 43%

 

Fars News Agency

June 10

http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8803201253

Participants: 46 cities

  • Ahmadinejad: 54%
  • Mousavi: 33%
  • Karrubi: 6.1%
  • Rezai: 3.2%

 

Aftab News Agency

June 8-9

http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdcb5sb9.rhbg0piuur.html 

Participants: 36,000 people in 14 provinces (the capital of a province, one major city, one town, and three villages).

  • Mousavi: 50.3%
  • Ahmadinejad: 34.6%
  • Karrubi: 8.2%
  • Rezai: 6.9%

 

Provincial breakdown:

Province
Ahmadinejad
Rezai
Karrubi
Mousavi
Tehran
27.3
7.7
10.4
5406
Esfahan
37.4
7.1
10.1
45.4
West Azerbaijan
22.5
3.4
4.9
69.2
East Azerbaijan
19.7
3.8
4.2
72.3
Khorasan Razavi
40.2
5.2
8.6
46
Yazd
25.1
5.0
9.2
60.7
Ardabil
26.6
3.9
7.3
62.2
Zanjan
27.4
3.1
6.9
62.6
Fars
30.2
8.4
8.8
52.6
Semnan
64.8
7.2
5.1
22.9
Gilan
26.5
5.6
11.0
56.9
Mazandaran
43.1
8.2
10.4
38.3
Hormozgan
30.2
10.4
12.9
46.5
Khuzestan
29.8
22.5
10.5
37.2

 

 

Alef News Agency

June 6

http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/47142/

Participants: 30 cities

  • Ahmadinejad: 63%
  • Incomplete information on remaining candidates

 

Fars News

June 2, 2009

http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/46964/

  • Ahmadinejad: 53 %
  • Mousavi: 36%
  • Karrubi: 3%
  • Rezai: 2%

 

Ayandeh News 

Week of May 25, 2009

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96057&sectionid=351020101

Participants: 10 cities

  • Mousavi: 38%
  • Ahmadinejad: 34%

 

Terror Free Tomorrow / New American Foundation

May 11-20, 2009

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/TFT-NAF%20Iran%20Survey%20Report%20.pdf 

Participants: 1001 Iranian adults from a random national sample, interviewed by telephone

  • Ahmadinejad: 34%
  • Mousavi: 14%
  • Karrubi: 2%
  • Rezai: 1%
  •  

IRIB

Week of May 18, 2009

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96057&sectionid=351020101

(Tehran Only)

  • Mousavi: 47%
  • Ahmadinejad: 43%

 

Alef News Agency

May 17-18, 2009

http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/45908/

Participants:15,000

  • Ahmadinejad: 54.5%
  • Mousavi: 22%
  • Karrubi: 3.2%
  • Rezai: 2%

 

Entekhab News

May 17-18, 2009

http://www.entekhabnews.com/portal/index.php?news=4772

  • Mousavi: 27.8
  • Rezai: 25.5
  • Ahmadinejad: 23.9
  • Karrubi: 22.8

 

Teribon Poll at Isfahan University:

May 14, 2009

http://teribon.com/1388/02/24/%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%86%D8%AC%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B4%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%81%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86/

Non-Internet poll of students at Isfahan University

Participants: 2564

·         Mousavi: 58.49% - 1313 votes

·         Ahmadinejad: 21.2% - 476 votes

·         Karrubi: 9.35% - 210 votes

·         Rezai: 1.02% - 23 votes

 

Teribon Internet Poll

As of May 14, 2009 – 11:51 a.m.

http://teribon.com/1388/02/22/nazarsanj-2/

Participants: 3161 (unscientific Internet poll)

If you could go back to four years ago, who would you vote for?

·         Ahmadinejad: 32% - 1,003 votes

·         Rafsanjani: 29% - 902 votes

·         Moein: 17% - 540 votes

·         Qalibaf: 7% - 214 votes

·         Larijani: 1% - 42 votes

·         Rezai: 1% - 35 votes

·         Mehr Alizada: 1% - 19 votes

 

Webgozar Internet Poll

As of May 14, 2009 – 11:43 a.m.

http://www.webgozar.com/poll/result.aspx

Participants: 2682 (unscientific Internet poll)

·         Ahmadinejad: 19.8% - 521 votes

·         Mousavi: 69.7% - 521 votes

·         Karrubi: 3.8% - 100 votes

·         Rezai: 2.6% - 60 votes

·         Not taking part: 3.9% - 105 votes

 

Teribon Internet Poll

May 12, 2009

http://teribon.com/1388/02/22/nazarsanj-2/

·         Ahmadinejad: 42%

·         Karrubi 19.7%

·         Mousavi: 16.2%

·         Rezai: 3.2%

 

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA):

May 4, 2009

http://iran-tejarat.com/News/Cat11/News24715.html

Conducted in 13 universities in Tehran from April 26, 2009 to April 29, 2009

Participants: 1370

 

·         Ahmadinejad: 51.3%

·         Mousavi: 26.4%

·         Karrubi: 17.5%

·         Rezai: 8.4%

·         91% certainly will take part in voting; 6.3 will not; 4.5 undecided

·         41.3% of participants were male; 58.7% female

·         62.7% under 35 years of age; 21% between 35-45; and 3.16% over 46

 

 

Sada va Sima Organization (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting - IRIB)

May 3-4, 2009

Conducted in 62 cities

Participants: 23,898 

Who would you like to stand as a candidate?

·         Ahmadinejad: 46.7%

·         Mousavi: 13%

·         Khatami: 7.2%

·         Karrubi : 1.9%

 

Will you participate in election?

·         77% certainly or very likely to take part

 

Who would you like to vote for?

·         Ahmadinejad: 58.2%

·         Mousavi: 21.9%

·         Karrubi: 3.6%

·         Rezai: 1.4%

·         Valayati: 1.4%

 

 

Kayhan

 April 23, 2009

http://www.aftabnews.ir/prtjxteo.uqeaozsffu.html

On voter turnout

·         43.9% definitely will take part

·         21.6% strongly likely

·         17.2% uncertain

·         9.5% unlikely

·         11.1% not interested

·         3% not responded

 

Iran News Roundup April 21 – 22, 2009:

An unnamed academic research center's poll shows 60 percent interest in participation in presidential elections.

 

Labor Union Association

April 9-10

http://emruz.biz/ShowItem.aspx?ID=21518&p=1

·         Mousavi: 52%

·         Ahmadinejad: 36%

·         Karrubi: 8%

·         62.2% will participate in election

·         57.3% believe labors’ conditions have worsened in the current administration compared in the previous one

·         37.4% believe Ahmadinejad is a supporter of the destitute, but didn’t have the opportunity in this term to serve the poor

·         48.2% say the best government is a government that fights inflation and improves living conditions of labors

 

University Polling Association

April 9-10 and early March

http://www.payanews.com/?id=146

Candidate

April 9-10

Early March

Ahmadinejad

46.9

44.5

Mousavi

15.7

8.2

Khatami

-

20.5

Qalibaf

12.9

6.3

Valayati

2.1

2.2

Larijani

4.4

-

Karrubi

1.4

1

Rezai

0.9

-

None

10.9

6.6

Don’t know

5.1

4.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tabnak News Agency

March 20, 2009

http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=40865

Unscientific Internet poll

·         Mousavi: 23.8%

·         Ahmadinejad: 15.1%

·         Mehdi Karrubi: 2.6%

 

Iran News Roundup March 19, 2009:

·         An opinion poll shows 57% of Khatami supporters will vote for Qalibaf should he run for the post. The figure is down to 49% in some large cities. Twenty nine percent of Khatami’s supporters will now back Mir-Hossein Mousavi, while 14% are divided between those backing Mehdi Karrubi and those undecided or unwilling to take part in the polls.   

 

Tabnak News Agency

March 17, 2009

http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/print.php?cid=40865

Unscientific Internet poll conducted for 72 hours

Participants: 54407

·         Khatami: 51.7%

·         Mousavi: 23.8%

·         Ahmadinejad : 15.1%

·         Coalition government: 6.8%

·         Karrubi: 2.6%

 

The Islamic Students Association of Tehran University and Medical Faculty of Tehran:

http://news.iran-emrooz.net/index.php?/news2/17844/

February 26, 2009

Participants: 5167

·         Mousavi: 72.1%

·         Ahmadinejad: 17.6%

·         Karrubi: 6.9%

·         It gives details of polling figures at each faculty

 

Teribon

January 24, 2009

http://teribon.com/1387/11/04/nazar/

Unscientific Internet poll between reformist candidates

Participants: 2276

·         Khatami: 33% - 743 votes

·         Mousavi: 26% - 603 votes

·         Karrubi: 22% - 499 votes

·         Abdullah Noori: 19% - 431 votes