Iran Tracker

Militant Attacks & Targets

During the week, militants carried out several suicide bombing attacks targeting an outspoken anti-militant cleric who had called for an end to suicide attacks in Lahore, a mosque in Nowshera, and a five-star hotel in Peshawar. By the end of the week, a deputy to senior Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander Hakeemullah Mehsud claimed responsibility for the attacks on behalf of Beitullah Mehsud’s TTP.[1] The targeted assassination of prominent cleric Mufti Sarfraz Naeemi strikes some analysts as significant in its symbolism. Hassan Askari Rizvi teases out the underlying message that anyone who publicly opposes the Taliban can be targeted, thus broadening militant operations beyond assaults against government and military personnel.[2] Aside from calling for an end to suicide attacks, Naeemi had publicly supported the Pakistani military operations in Swat and elsewhere, staging rallies in Lahore in support of the operations. A Pakistani professor and religious scholar said of Naeemi’s views, “His argument was simple: Religion does not stand for violence. You can’t take the life of any individual, or your own life. And you can’t wage jihad against your own state.”[3] 

Anti-Taliban Backlash 

In retaliation for a suicide bomb attack at a mosque in Upper Dir, local residents began forming lashkars (tribal security forces) to carry out anti-militant operations. Reports surfaced during the week indicating that the local groups had secured several villages, cornering militants into mountainous hideouts and securing escape routes. The formation of tribal militias is not without precedent. Last fall, for example, tribal elders formed local militias in response to increasing Taliban influence and violence in Orakzai agency. The effectiveness of those local groups was uneven and often dependent on Pakistani military support that lacked consistency and decisiveness.[4] This week’s response by the lashkars—with an estimated force size of between 1,000 and 1,500 villagers armed with heavy weapons—reportedly received support from Pakistani military artillery and helicopter gunships. As was the case last fall, local residents complained about errant and ineffective gunship helicopter shelling in some areas.[5] The militant response to the lashkar assaults in Upper Dir, including potential counter-attacks against tribal elders, remains to be seen.   

Shaping for Waziristan Offensive?

The Pakistani army undertook operations against militants in areas of Bannu and Malakand districts, and in the tribal agency of South Waziristan during the week in response to attacks on military installations, the kidnapping of military cadets, and other provocations. The reactive operations reportedly involved heavy fighting in multiple clashes. Pakistani security forces claimed over the weekend that more than sixty militants had been killed in Bannu and South Waziristan in a twenty-four hour period, partly in retaliation for the TTP’s targeted assassination of Naeemi.[6] Also on Sunday, a reported drone strike in the Ladha sub-division of South Waziristan killed five militants near a Beitullah Mehsud-stronghold just sixty kilometers north of the TTP leader’s suspected base in Wana.[7] Earlier in the week, Pakistani military officials downplayed the potential of an impending offensive operation into Waziristan. Over the weekend, however, NWFP governor Owais Ghani announced that the Pakistani military will launch operations against Mehsud in South Waziristan, his TTP stronghold on Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. Ghani attributed the decision to Mehsud’s failure to expel foreign fighters and destroy their training camps, adding that Mehsud “…is the root cause of all the problems. He is the axis of evil.”[8]